As of Thursday, September 12, SMM copper stocks in major regions nationwide decreased by 14,400 mt compared to Monday to 216,900 mt and by 38,800 mt compared to last Thursday, marking the tenth consecutive week of destocking, with the destocking speed accelerating. The inventory hit a new low after the Chinese New Year. Compared to Monday, inventories in all regions decreased. Total stocks were 116,000 mt higher than last year's 100,900 mt, with Shanghai 78,300 mt higher, Jiangsu 15,400 mt higher, and Guangdong 27,300 mt higher.
Specifically, stocks in Shanghai decreased by 5,700 mt to 152,000 mt compared to Monday. Although arrivals of imported copper in Shanghai increased compared to last week, downstream consumption was better, leading to a continuous decline in local stocks. Stocks in Jiangsu fell by 1,900 mt to 24,000 mt, mainly due to reduced arrivals and increased outflows from warehouses. Stocks in Guangdong decreased by 6,400 mt to 36,900 mt. Recently, arrivals at Guangdong warehouses have decreased, and outflows from warehouses have significantly increased, primarily driven by pre-holiday restocking by downstream enterprises, which is also reflected in the fact that Guangdong's average daily outflows from warehouses have reached a new high for the year.
Looking ahead, domestic copper arrivals next week will remain limited, but imported copper arrivals will increase, with total supply expected to increase slightly. On the downstream consumption side, it is reported that most processing enterprises will not take a holiday or only have a one-day holiday during the Mid-Autumn Festival, with raw material consumption projected to decrease slightly. Therefore, we expect an increase in supply and a decrease in demand during the Mid-Autumn Festival, with post-holiday inventory likely to increase slightly, but weekly stocks are expected to continue declining.
